Arjun Devecha : Capturing Domestic Demand in Emerging Markets Neither Small Caps Nor Multinationals Are a Good Proxy

By Arjun Devecha : "We believe one of the most compelling investment opportunities over the next few years is likely to be in companies that serve domestic demand within emerging markets. Our case rests on two underlying and interconnected forces – one economic and the other demographic. As poor countries get richer, they save as much as they can. Savings rates usually rise until countries reach a range of $3,000 to $10,000 per capita GDP. Once in that range, savings rates begin to decline and consumption becomes a larger part of GDP growth as society starts to provide a social safety net. At this level of wealth, per capita consumption of all goods and services rises in a highly non-linear fashion. For example, while Chinese per capita GDP quadrupled from $1,000 to $4,000 during the past decade, auto sales rose from one million vehicles per year to over 17 million. Markets rarely anticipate this kind of non-linear growth. Fifty percent of all emerging markets (by market capitalization) are now in this sweet spot of shifting from savings to
consumption."

Read more in attached newsletter.

AD_CapturingDomesticDemandinEM_114.pdf

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