The Way Forward: Measuring the Impact of Short-Term and Structural Growth Drivers on Emerging Market Investing

” The prospect of a potential recession in both the United States and Europe has recently increased, driving a sharp reduction in global risk appetite. Traditionally, a slowdown in developed countries – and a decline in risk appetite – have had an adverse impact on emerging economies and their asset values. However, in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, many emerging countries were able to recover from the economic slowdown more quickly than developed economies, with the advent of counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary policies, as well as a dramatic increase in global liquidity. Can this scenario be repeated?

Authored by Bunt Ghosh, Head of Emerging Market Strategy and Risk, Anja Hochberg, Head of Investment Strategy for the CIO Office and Adrian Zürcher, Emerging Market and Equity Strategist for the CIO Office, the paper discusses how emerging markets – while not immune from a potential global slowdown – may again have the capacity to successfully respond to the current market environment with similar counter-cyclical measures”

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